Burden of ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with the global level

Our plain-English summary of Burden of ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with the global level, by Y. Wang, Z. Wang, Z. Zhang, et al (Frontiers in Public Health, 2023).

The study

• Authors: Y. Wang, Z. Wang, Z. Zhang, H. Wang, J. Peng, L. Hong
• Journal: Frontiers in Public Health
• Published: 2023;11:1136596
• Cited by: 47 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

Introduction: Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the major diseases threatening women's health and life. Estimating the burden trends and risk factors of OC can help develop effective management and prevention measures. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis concerning the burden and risk factors of OC in China. In this study, we aimed to assess and predict the burden trends of OC in China from 1990 to 2030, and make a comparison with the global level.

Methods: We extracted prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) and characterized OC burden in China by year and age. OC epidemiological characteristics were interpreted by conducting joinpoint and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. We also described risk factors, and predicted OC burden from 2019 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results: In China, there were about 196,000 cases, 45,000 new cases and 29,000 deaths owing to OC in 2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence and mortality have increased by 105.98%, 79.19%, and 58.93% respectively by 1990. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. The OC burden in women under 20 years of age is slowing down, while the burden in women over 40 years of age is getting more severe, especially in postmenopausal and older women. High fasting plasma glucose is the major factor contributing the most to OC burden in China, and high body-mass index has surpassed occupational exposure to asbestos to be the second risk factor. OC burden from 2016 to 2019 in China has increased faster than ever before, indicates an urgent need to develop effective interventions.

Conclusion: The burden of OC in China has shown an obvious upward trend in the past 30 years, and the increase rate accelerated significantly in recent 5 years. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. Popularizing screening methods, optimizing the quality of clinical diagnosis and treatment, and promoting healthy lifestyle are critical measures to improve this problem.

Copyright © 2023 Wang, Wang, Zhang, Wang, Peng and Hong.

In plain English

This study analysed existing estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) rather than new patient data. The authors described ovarian cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2019, compared it globally, and projected incidence and mortality to 2030. They estimated about 196,000 cases, 45,000 new cases and 29,000 deaths in China in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, China's age-standardized rates rose about 105.98% for prevalence, 79.19% for incidence and 58.93% for mortality. The uncertainty range for the mortality change included zero. Global rates stayed roughly the same. China's increases sped up from 2016 to 2019. GBD 2019 identified high fasting plasma glucose, occupational exposure to asbestos and high body-mass index as three main risk factors for ovarian cancer deaths and DALYs. In China, high fasting plasma glucose contributed most; high body-mass index overtook occupational asbestos exposure as second. The asbestos contribution in China fluctuated over the period, while globally it gradually decreased. They projected China's age-standardized incidence and mortality rates at 2.96 and 1.69 per 100,000 in 2030. They noted GBD figures are not direct measurements.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates. It used descriptive trend analysis, joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project rates to 2030.
• Who was studied: Women in China, compared with the global level. The data were GBD 2019 estimates of ovarian cancer prevalence, incidence, deaths, DALYs, YLDs and YLLs, given for each year from 1990 to 2019, with projections for 2020 to 2030.
• Exposure: GBD 2019 risk factors for ovarian cancer deaths and DALYs: high fasting plasma glucose, occupational exposure to asbestos (fiber type not specified), and high body-mass index. Their contribution was measured as the population attributable proportion (PAF).
• Main results:
  • China, 2019: about 196,000 cases, 45,000 new cases, and 29,000 ovarian cancer deaths.
  • China, 1990 to 2019: age-standardized rates rose by about 105.98% (prevalence), 79.19% (incidence), 58.93% (mortality), 47.88% (DALYs), 91.78% (YLDs) and 46.81% (YLLs).
  • In Table 1, the change in China's age-standardized mortality rate was 0.58, with a 95% CI of -0.10 to 1.28. That range includes zero.
  • The global burden of ovarian cancer, measured by age-standardized rates, remained roughly the same from 1990 to 2019.
  • In China, the increase in all burden indicators was significantly faster from 2016 to 2019.
  • Age-period-cohort analysis, China: the Net Drift was 1.61% (95% CI 1.43 to 1.79) for incidence and 0.67% (95% CI 0.50 to 0.84) for mortality.
  • In China, high fasting plasma glucose made the largest contribution. Its PAF rose rapidly from 2000 to 2005 and then fluctuated around 6.25%.
  • In China, the PAF of high body-mass index rose steadily and overtook occupational exposure to asbestos as the second largest contributing factor.
  • The contribution of occupational exposure to asbestos fluctuated in China from 1990 to 2019, while the global contribution gradually decreased.
  • Projection for China in 2030: age-standardized incidence of 2.96 per 100,000 and mortality of 1.69 per 100,000.
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that ovarian cancer burden in China rose clearly over the past 30 years, with a marked acceleration in the most recent 5 years, and would keep rising faster than the global level. They stated that screening, better diagnosis and treatment, healthy lifestyle and reducing exposure to carcinogens would help reduce future burden.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • GBD 2019 data are modelled estimates, not direct measurements, so some bias is unavoidable.
  • GBD 2019 covers only a limited set of ovarian cancer risk factors.
  • No province-level data were available, so differences within China were not analysed.
  • The projections do not account for effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Ovarian cancer.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Ovarian Cancer, Occupational Exposure.

Related studies

• Investigation of the trends and associated factors of ovarian cancer in Indonesia: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2021 — B.A. Tjokroprawiro, K. Novitasari, et al. (2025)
• The global burden and associated factors of ovarian cancer in 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 — S. Zhang, C. Cheng, et al. (2022)
• Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer among young women during 1990-2019 — Q. Zhuang, G. Gu, et al. (2025)
• A comparative study of the disease burden attributable to asbestos in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia between 1990 and 2019 — J. Chen, C. Wang, et al. (2022)
• Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 — GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors Collaborators (2020)
• Pre-diagnostic serum levels of inflammation markers and risk of ovarian cancer in the prostate, lung, colorectal and ovarian cancer (PLCO) screening trial — B. Trabert, L. Pinto, et al. (2014)

Browse more research in Frontiers in Public Health, or return to medical research.