Environmentally related diseases and the possibility of valuation of their social costs

Our plain-English summary of Environmentally related diseases and the possibility of valuation of their social costs, by I. Hajok, E. Marchwińska, G. Dziubanek, et al (TheScientificWorldJournal, 2014).

The study

• Authors: I. Hajok, E. Marchwińska, G. Dziubanek, B. Kuraszewska, A. Piekut
• Journal: TheScientificWorldJournal
• Published: 2014;2014:284072
• Cited by: 5 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

The risks of the morbidity of the asbestos-related lung cancer was estimated in the general population of Poles as the result of increased exposure to asbestos fibers during the removal of asbestos-cement products and the possibility of the valuation of the social costs related to this risk. The prediction of the new incidences was made using linear regression model. The forecast shows that to the end of 2030 about 3,500 new cases of lung cancer can be expected as a result of occupational exposure to asbestos in the past which makes together with paraoccupational exposure about 14.000 new cases. The forecast shows the increasing number of asbestos-related lung cancer in Poland and indicates the priority areas where preventive action should be implemented.

In plain English

This forecasting study used Polish national data and a statistical model, described in the Methods as Poisson log-linear regression, to predict new cases of asbestos-related lung cancer in Poland up to 2030. It did not name specific asbestos fiber types. The authors estimated that about 58,000 people were occupationally exposed in 28 asbestos-processing plants between 1940 and 1998. Using a worker questionnaire showing an average family of four, they estimated that up to 230,000 people were exposed at work or through a worker's household. The model forecast a maximum of 3,500 new cases by the end of 2030 resulting from past occupational exposure. Counting paraoccupational (family) exposure, the authors put the figure at 14,000. Forecasts by zone were about 640 cases in zone I (2010 to 2030), about 1,800 in zone II and 1,900 in zone III. Zone III covered 13% of the country but had about 50% of registered asbestos-related disease cases. Social costs were not calculated. The authors concluded the disease will be a growing public health issue in Poland. They said their exposed-population figure seems underestimated.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Forecasting (modelling) study using data from national databases and Poisson log-linear regression to predict incidence of asbestos-related lung cancer to 2030, plus a literature-based discussion of how social costs could be valued
• Who was studied: Polish population, with an estimated 58,000 people occupationally exposed in 28 asbestos-processing plants (1940 to 1998) and up to 230,000 people exposed occupationally and paraoccupationally (about 0.6% of the total population); the country was divided into three risk zones
• Exposure: Past occupational exposure to asbestos in asbestos-processing plants and paraoccupational exposure of workers' families. The study's stated aim concerned exposure during removal and disposal of asbestos-cement products. Fiber types are not specified.
• Main results:
  • The model estimated a maximum of 3,500 new cases of asbestos-related lung cancer in Poland by the end of 2030 resulting from past occupational exposure
  • Including occupational and paraoccupational exposure, the estimate was 14,000 new cases, based on an average worker's family of four people
  • Forecast new cases by zone: about 640 in zone I (2010 to 2030, smallest increase), about 1,800 in zone II, and 1,900 in zone III
  • Zone III (Malopolskie and Lubelskie administrative areas) covered 13% of the country's area but had about 50% of all registered cases of diseases from asbestos dust exposure in Poland
  • The direct and indirect costs of asbestos-related lung cancer were not estimated
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that asbestos-related lung cancer will be an increasingly important public health issue in Poland because of the rising number of cases, and that the three-zone division indicates priority areas for prevention
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The estimated exposed population seems to be underestimated (for example, because of multigenerational families and sharing of asbestos waste with neighbors)
  • The forecast does not include environmental exposure from aging asbestos-cement panels and removal by inhabitants, which the authors expect would make case numbers much greater
  • The costs in Poland are difficult to estimate

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Lung cancer, Mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Lung Cancer, Asbestos-Cement, Occupational Exposure.

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• Case-control study of pleural mesothelioma in workers with social security in Mexico — G. Aguilar-Madrid, E. Robles-Pérez, et al. (2010)
• The social context of occupational disease: asbestos and South Africa — J. Myers (1981)
• Long-term epidemiological observation of asbestos-related diseases in Poland, 1970-2015 — B. Swiatkowska, N. Szeszenia-Dabrowska (2017)

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