Estimation of the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland

Our plain-English summary of Estimation of the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland, by E. Wilk, M. Krówczyńska, P. Pabjanek, et al (Waste Management & Research, 2017).

The study

• Authors: E. Wilk, M. Krówczyńska, P. Pabjanek, P. Mędrzycki
• Journal: Waste Management & Research
• Published: 2017;35(5):491-499
• Cited by: 6 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher

Abstract

The unique set of physical and chemical properties has led to many industrial applications of asbestos worldwide; one of them was roof covering. Asbestos is harmful to human health, and therefore its use was legally forbidden. Since in Poland there is no adequate data on the amount of asbestos-cement roofing, the objective of this study was to estimate its quantity on the basis of physical inventory taking with the use of aerial imagery, and the application of selected statistical features. Data pre-processing and analysis was executed in R Statistical Environment v. 3.1.0. Best random forest models were computed; model explaining 72.9% of the variance was subsequently used to prepare the prediction map of the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland. Variables defining the number of farms, number and age of buildings, and regional differences were crucial for the analysis. The total amount of asbestos roofing in Poland was estimated at 738,068,000 m2 (8.2m t). It is crucial for the landfill development programme, financial resources distribution, and application of monitoring policies.

In plain English

This study did not look at health effects. It estimated how much asbestos-cement roofing is still on buildings in Poland. Inventory teams had recorded asbestos-cement roofing (flat and corrugated sheets) building by building in 160 of Poland's 2479 communes in 2008–2013. The authors combined these records with local statistics, land-use and built-up-area maps, historical borders, and the locations of asbestos manufacturing plants. They then used a computer method called random forest to predict the amount of roofing for every commune. The best version, based on built-up-area data, explained 72.9% of the variation. It estimated 738,068,000 m2 of asbestos roofing in Poland, given as 8.2m t. There was less asbestos roofing in western Poland and more in urban communes and in eastern and southern Poland. In the inventoried communes the average was 39,000 m2, against about 42,000 m2 predicted. The authors called this an acceptable overestimation of 5%. They noted the largest errors were in small communes, mainly in southern Poland. The authors concluded that random forest may be a good model for this prediction.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Statistical modelling study (random forest regression) calibrated on field inventory data of asbestos-cement roofing
• Who was studied: Buildings in 160 communes spread across Poland (out of 2479 communes), inventoried in 2008–2013. The model's predictions were extended to all communes in Poland.
• Exposure: Asbestos-cement roofing still in use, of two types: flat sheets and corrugated sheets. No fiber type is named.
• Main results:
  • The model using land-use dataset 1 explained 49.8% of the variance in the amount of asbestos roofing.
  • The model using land-use dataset 2 explained 59.0% of the variance.
  • The model using built-up-area (SSL) data explained 72.9% of the variance and was the one used for the national estimate.
  • The total amount of asbestos roofing in Poland was estimated at 738,068,000 m2, or 8.2m t using the conversion rate of the Programme for Asbestos Abatement in Poland.
  • There was less asbestos roofing in communes in western Poland. There was more in urban communes and in eastern and southern Poland.
  • In the 160 inventoried communes, the average was 39,000 m2 of asbestos roofing, against about 42,000 m2 predicted by the model. The authors assessed this overestimation at an acceptable 5%.
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that a random forest may be a good model for predicting the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland. They also concluded that it can assess which characteristics may affect that amount.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The authors stated that the 160 communes may be insufficient to capture how the roofing varies across the whole country.
  • The largest errors were in small communes, mainly in southern Poland, where building types and roofing differ.
  • The authors cited earlier research reporting that the built-up-area (SSL) data overestimate built-up areas in Poland by 81.5%. They said more accurate built-up-area data could improve the model.
  • The choice of statistical features was limited by what data were available at the commune level.

Topics

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Asbestos-Cement.

Related studies

• Emission of airborne fibers from mechanically impacted asbestos-cement sheets and concentration of fibrous aerosol in the home environment in Upper Silesia, Poland — J.S. Pastuszka (2009)
• Mapping asbestos-cement roofing with hyperspectral remote sensing over a large mountain region of the Italian Western Alps — F. Frassy, G. Candiani, et al. (2014)
• Environmental and Occupational Exposure to Asbestos as a Result of Consumption and Use in Poland — M. Krówczyńska, E. Wilk (2019)
• Pleural mesothelioma in Poland: Spatial analysis of malignant mesothelioma prevalence in the period 1999-2013 — M. Krówczyńska, E. Wilk, et al. (2018)
• Public health risks from asbestos cement roofing — M. Kottek, M.L. Yuen (2022)
• Mesothelioma: has patient had contact with even small amount of asbestos? — K. Garrahan (1987)

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