Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040

Our plain-English summary of Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040, by E. Oddone, J. Bollon, C.R. Nava, et al (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020).

The study

• Authors: E. Oddone, J. Bollon, C.R. Nava, G. Minelli, M. Imbriani, D. Consonni, A. Marinaccio, C. Magnani, F. Barone-Adesi
• Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
• Published: 2020;18(1)
• Cited by: 6 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996-2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996-2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.

In plain English

This brief report described deaths from malignant peritoneal mesothelioma, a cancer of the lining of the abdomen, in Italy from 1996 to 2016, and forecast deaths up to 2040. The authors used national death records from the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) for people aged 45 to 86. They projected future trends with statistical models called Poisson age-period-cohort models. Between 1996 and 2016 there were 1417 deaths, 878 (62.0%) of them in men. Death rates in men stayed broadly constant at 1.29 to 1.59 per million person-years. In women, rates peaked at 1.01 per million person-years in 1999–2001 and fell afterwards. The models predicted 1333 deaths between 2017 and 2040: 885 in men and 448 in women. Both numbers and rates were predicted to fall steadily. The study did not measure anyone's asbestos exposure. The authors concluded that the epidemic in Italy has probably already peaked, and that the expected deaths are likely related to high occupational asbestos exposure in the 1960s and 1970s. They noted that in women, peritoneal mesothelioma might sometimes have been confused with ovarian cancer.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Brief report: a descriptive analysis of national mortality data, with forecasts made using Poisson age-period-cohort models
• Who was studied: All deaths from malignant peritoneal mesothelioma recorded in Italy in 1996–2016 by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT), restricted to people aged 45 to 86 years
• Exposure: Asbestos exposure was not measured in this study. In their discussion, the authors linked the deaths to high occupational asbestos exposure in Italy in the 1960s and 1970s. No fiber types are specified.
• Main results:
  • 1417 peritoneal mesothelioma deaths were observed in Italy between 1996 and 2016, of which 878 (62.0%) were in men
  • Observed death rates in men were broadly constant, between 1.29 and 1.59 per 1,000,000 person-years
  • Observed death rates in women peaked at 1.01 per 1,000,000 person-years in 1999–2001 and fell afterwards
  • The highest rate in men was 10.54 per 1,000,000 person-years, among men aged 75–77 who were born between 1931 and 1935
  • The highest rate in women was 5.14 per 1,000,000 person-years, among women aged 72–74 who were born between 1925 and 1929
  • The model predicted 1333 deaths in 2017–2040: 885 (66.4%) in men and 448 (33.6%) in women
  • In both men and women, the predicted number of deaths fell steadily over the whole forecast period, reaching its lowest in 2038–2040
  • The lowest predicted death rates were 0.86 per 1,000,000 person-years for men and 0.40 per 1,000,000 person-years for women
  • According to the authors, the number of deaths had already peaked in 2014–2016 for men and in 1999–2001 for women
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that the peritoneal mesothelioma epidemic in Italy has probably already reached its peak, both in number of deaths and in death rates. They added that 1333 deaths are nonetheless expected up to 2040, likely related to high occupational asbestos exposure in the 1960s and 1970s.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • In women, peritoneal mesothelioma and ovarian cancer may have been confused with each other. The authors judged that this did not cause severe bias, because the trend in men, where this confusion is not possible, was similar.

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Mesothelioma, Peritoneal mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Peritoneal Mesothelioma, Mesothelioma.

Related studies

• Effect of Asbestos Consumption on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy: Forecasts of Mortality up to 2040 — E. Oddone, J. Bollon, et al. (2021)
• Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use — E. Oddone, J. Bollon, et al. (2020)
• Peritoneal mesothelioma in Italy: Trends and geography of mortality and incidence — S. Conti, G. Minelli, et al. (2015)
• Peritoneal mesothelioma mortality in Italy: Spatial analysis and search for asbestos exposure sources — A. Zona, L. Fazzo, et al. (2019)
• Peritoneal mesothelioma and asbestos exposure: a population-based case-control study in Lombardy, Italy — D. Consonni, C. Calvi, et al. (2019)
• Differences between peritoneal and pleural mesothelioma in Lombardy, Italy — C. Mensi, M. Mendola, et al. (2017)

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