Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: a cross-sectional analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Our plain-English summary of Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: a cross-sectional analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, by W. Xie, S. Tang, R. Tang, et al (International Journal of Surgery, 2026).

The study

• Authors: W. Xie, S. Tang, R. Tang, L. Li, X. Liu
• Journal: International Journal of Surgery
• Published: 2026;112(1):226-238
• Cited by: 15 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

Background: Ovarian cancer remains the most lethal gynecological cancer, with fewer than 50% of patients surviving more than 5 years after diagnosis. This study aimed to analyze the global epidemiological trends of ovarian cancer from 1990 to 2021 and also project its prevalence to 2050, providing insights into these evolving patterns and helping health policymakers use healthcare resources more effectively.

Methods: This study comprehensively analyzes the original data related to ovarian cancer from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database, employing a variety of methods including descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, predictive analysis, frontier analysis, and health inequality analysis. The aim is to explore the disease burden of ovarian cancer and its changing trends in detail.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for ovarian cancer significantly increased, while the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) showed a marked decline. In 2021, the ASIR of ovarian cancer was 6.71 per 100 000 population, the ASPR was 28.08 per 100 000, the ASMR was 4.06 per 100 000, and the ASDR was 115.15 per 100 000. As the Social Development Index (SDI) increased, the disease burden of ovarian cancer exhibited a trend of rising initially followed by a decline. Health inequalities between countries have slowed, but high-SDI countries remain the primary regions with the greatest disease burden. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of ovarian cancer increased with age, with population growth being a major driver of the rise in ovarian cancer ASRs. Furthermore, the effects of aging and epidemiological changes vary across different regions. Predictive results indicate that from 2022 to 2050, both the ASIR and ASPR for ovarian cancer will continue to rise, while the ASMR and ASDR will initially decrease before increasing again. High body mass index and occupational exposure to asbestos are the primary risk factors contributing to ovarian cancer.

Conclusions: Although the disease burden of ovarian cancer showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, a potential rebound may occur in the future. The disease burden of ovarian cancer exhibits significant heterogeneity across age, time, and geographical regions. Greater attention to these factors is needed moving forward.

Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

In plain English

This cross-sectional analysis used Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 estimates, not new patient data, for ovarian cancer in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2050. In 2021, global age-standardized rates were 6.71 new cases (95% uncertainty interval 6.07 to 7.28) and 4.06 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.67 to 4.40) per 100 000. The results and table show age-standardized incidence, death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY, a measure of healthy life lost) rates falling from 1990 to 2021 while prevalence rose. The abstract states the reverse. Rates were highest in the high SDI region. Only two risk factors were reported as attributable to ovarian cancer. In 2021, 9.18% of ovarian cancer DALYs worldwide were attributed to high body mass index and 1.83% to occupational exposure to asbestos. The asbestos-attributable age-standardized DALY rate stayed stable at lower levels from 1990 to 2021. No fiber types were named. The authors concluded the burden had decreased but is projected to rise. They noted data-quality limits and that only database risk factors could be studied.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Cross-sectional secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 estimates, with trend, age-period-cohort, decomposition, inequality and forecasting analyses
• Who was studied: Modeled ovarian cancer estimates for 204 countries and territories, grouped by five SDI levels and 21 GBD regions, from 1990 to 2021, covering ages 15 to 95+
• Exposure: Ovarian cancer burden overall, plus the burden attributed to the two risk factors reported for ovarian cancer: high body mass index and occupational exposure to asbestos (no fiber types or jobs specified)
• Main results:
  • Global 2021 age-standardized rates: incidence 6.71 (95% UI 6.07, 7.28), prevalence 28.08 (95% UI 25.26, 30.64), and mortality 4.06 (95% UI 3.67, 4.40), all per 100 000
  • Globally, from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates declined significantly (according to the results text and Table 1)
  • Among the five SDI regions, the high SDI region had the highest rates in 2021
  • Globally in 2021, 9.18% of ovarian cancer-related DALYs were attributed to high BMI and 1.83% to occupational exposure to asbestos
  • From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate attributed to occupational asbestos exposure remained stable at lower levels
  • Projected 2050 global rates per 100 000: incidence 11.09 (95% UI 9.60, 12.58), prevalence 50.62 (95% UI 41.54, 59.71), mortality 5.65 (95% UI 5.12, 6.19)
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that the global ovarian cancer burden decreased over the past 30 years but is projected to rise over the next three decades, and that it varies by age, time and place
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The quality of the raw data and difficulties in data collection constrain GBD analysis
  • Many undiagnosed cases in less developed regions mean the figures may not reflect the true burden
  • The GBD data lack histological information, so subtypes could not be analyzed
  • Risk factor analysis was limited to the factors in the GBD 2021 database, which may not include all clinically relevant factors

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Ovarian cancer.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Ovarian Cancer, Incidence, Occupational Exposure.

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