Mesothelioma incidence projections in South East England

Our plain-English summary of Mesothelioma incidence projections in South East England, by S.P. Riaz, V.H. Coupland, M. Lüchtenborg, et al (The European Respiratory Journal, 2012).

The study

• Authors: S.P. Riaz, V.H. Coupland, M. Lüchtenborg, M.D. Peake, H. Møller
• Journal: The European Respiratory Journal
• Published: 2012;40(4):965-8
• Cited by: 11 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher

Abstract

We estimated the past and future age-standardised incidence rates of mesothelioma by birth cohort and by period of diagnosis in South East England. We extracted data on patients diagnosed with mesothelioma (International Classification of Diseases-10 C45) between 1960 and 2009 from the Thames Cancer Registry. We calculated the age-standardised incidence rates using the European standard population. We used age-cohort and age-period modelling to estimate the age-specific incidence rates for the 1900 to 1950 birth cohorts and the 1935 to 2034 calendar periods. A much more pronounced increase in mesothelioma incidence between 1972 and 2007 was observed in males than in females. In both sexes, the incidence rates increased in successive generations up to the 1945 birth cohort. Projection of rates in the future showed an increase in incidence in males until 2022 and a decrease thereafter. Among females, the incidence rate was predicted to increase gradually until reaching its maximum around 2027, and to remain stable thereafter. The occurrence of mesothelioma is closely linked to occupational exposure to asbestos in the 1960s and 1970s and, due to the long latency period, the incidence of mesothelioma is projected to increase until the 2020s.

In plain English

This study used Thames Cancer Registry records for London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent to estimate past and future mesothelioma rates. It included 8,250 patients diagnosed with mesothelioma between 1960 and 2009. They calculated age-standardised rates and used models of age, birth year and diagnosis period to project future rates. The models did not use data on asbestos exposure. Rates per 100,000 rose in males from 0.05 (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.09) in 1962 to 5.52 (5.26 to 5.78) in 2007, and in females from 0.02 (0.00 to 0.04) to 1.13 (1.02 to 1.24). The male-to-female ratio went from 2:1 in 1962 to 6:1 in the 1980s and 1990s, then 5:1 in the 2000s. Rates rose in each generation born up to 1945 (estimated 9.04 per 100,000 in males, 1.96 in females) and fell afterward. Male rates were projected to rise until about 2022 and then fall. Female rates were projected to peak around 2027, then stay relatively stable. The authors noted that projections further into the future were less robust. They concluded that rates would peak in the 2020s, slightly later in females.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Population-based cancer registry study of incidence trends, using age-cohort and age-period Poisson regression models to project future rates
• Who was studied: 8,250 patients diagnosed with mesothelioma (ICD-10 C45) between 1960 and 2009, recorded by the Thames Cancer Registry, which covers the residential populations of London, Surrey, Sussex and Kent in South East England
• Exposure: No exposure data were collected or modelled. The study looked at mesothelioma rates by age, birth cohort and calendar period. The modelling did not use any data on asbestos exposure in the population.
• Main results:
  • In 1962, age-standardised incidence rates per 100,000 European standard population were 0.05 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.09) in males (8 cases) and 0.02 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.04) in females (5 cases)
  • In 2007, age-standardised incidence rates per 100,000 European standard population were 5.52 (95% CI 5.26 to 5.78) in males (1748 cases) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.24) in females (446 cases)
  • Rates were higher in males than in females. The male-to-female incidence ratio changed from 2:1 in 1962 to 6:1 in the 1980s and 1990s, falling back to 5:1 in the 2000s
  • By birth cohort, rates increased in successive generations up to the 1945 cohort, with estimated rates of 9.04 per 100,000 among males and 1.96 per 100,000 among females. Rates decreased in the generation born after 1945
  • Male rates were projected to increase until about 2022 and decrease thereafter
  • Female rates were estimated to peak around 2027
  • Female rates were projected to increase gradually to a peak in the late 2020s and to remain relatively stable thereafter
• The authors' conclusion: The authors projected that mesothelioma incidence rates in South East England will continue to increase and peak in the 2020s, slightly later for females than for males
• Limitations the authors state:
  • Projections further into the future were less robust
  • Estimates for the earliest and latest birth cohorts rested on small numbers of cases and were less robust, so only the 1900 to 1950 birth cohorts were reported

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Mesothelioma, Incidence, Cancer Registry, Occupational Exposure, Latency.

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• Malignant mesothelioma in south east England: clinicopathological experience of 272 cases — D.H. Yates, B. Corrin, et al. (1997)
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