Product liability forecasting for asbestos-related personal injury claims: a multidisciplinary approach

Our plain-English summary of Product liability forecasting for asbestos-related personal injury claims: a multidisciplinary approach, by E. Stallard (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2001).

The study

• Author: E. Stallard
• Journal: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
• Published: 2001;954:223-44
• Type of article: Review
• Cited by: 1 article, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher

Abstract

This paper focuses on three aspects of forecasting models for asbestos-related disease/injuries relating to the Manville asbestos case: (1) The structure of forecasting models for asbestos-related personal injuries. (2) The epidemiologic evidence supporting the selected model structure and the constraints on the modeling assumptions imposed by that evidence. (3) The range of uncertainty associated with projections based on these forecasting models and issues relating to decision making under uncertainty.

In plain English

This paper described models that a court-appointed expert panel built in 1993 to 1994 to forecast asbestos-related personal injury claims against the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust. It then compared those forecasts with actual claims. It also summarized findings from other epidemiologic studies that the models relied on; those are not this paper's results. Male claims filed in 1990 to 1994 were just over one percent above the original male projection. Male claims in 1995 to 1999 were just over double the projection (160,483 vs. 78,845). For both sexes combined, 1995 to 1999 claims were 89% higher than projected: about 25% higher each for mesothelioma and lung cancer, 18% for other cancers and 103% for non-cancers. National cancer registry (SEER) data showed that mesothelioma diagnoses reached a plateau in 1990 to 1997. The author's preferred updated projection was 462,095 claims for 2000 to 2049, against a separate (ARPC) projection of 504,655. The author noted that the size and makeup of the exposed workforce were unknown. The author concluded that the plateau gave strong evidence that the underlying biological process was stable.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Forecasting and modeling analysis (demographic projection of legal claims), not an epidemiologic study. It compares the court-ordered Rule 706 Panel's earlier claim projections with actual Manville Trust claim filings and updates those projections. It includes a summary of epidemiologic evidence from other studies.
• Who was studied: Asbestos-related personal injury claims filed against the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust (U.S.). The original projections were for males and were based on claim data from January 1990 to June 1992. These were compared with Trust files released in 2000 covering the filing periods 1990–1994 and 1995–1999. Females made up 3–4% of claims.
• Exposure: Exposure to Johns-Manville asbestos products, estimated indirectly from occupation-specific mesothelioma claim counts across eight occupational/industry groups. Claim records gave no information on exposure intensity or asbestos fiber type.
• Main results:
  • Male claims filed in 1990–1994 were just over one percent higher than the original male projection. Table 1 shows 87,680 male claims against 86,606 projected.
  • Male claims filed in 1995–1999 were just over double the original projected count: 160,483 actual vs. 78,845 projected.
  • Among male claims in 1995–1999, mesothelioma claims were 26% higher than expected based on the reallocated 1994 projection.
  • Among male claims in 1995–1999, asbestosis claims were 160% higher than expected based on the reallocated 1994 projection.
  • Claims from both sexes (unisex) in 1995–1999 were 89% higher than projected overall: about 25% higher each for mesothelioma and lung cancer, 18% for other cancers, and 103% for non-cancers.
  • National SEER data showed mesothelioma diagnoses reached a plateau in 1990–1997, peaking in 1992.
  • National mortality data appeared to show substantial increases in male asbestosis mortality at ages 70–94 during 1990–1998.
  • Updated unisex projections for 2000–2049 were 402,007 claims (first adjustment) and 462,095 claims (second adjustment). The author considered the second adjustment the preferred model.
  • The preferred projection was 42,560 claims fewer than the ARPC projection of 504,655 claims for 2000–2049.
  • Approximate constant-dollar costs of projected claims under the 1995 Trust Distribution Process ranged from $20.5 to $24.1 billion.
• The authors' conclusion: The author concluded that the plateau in national mesothelioma diagnoses provided strong evidence that the underlying biological process of disease was stable.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The size and distribution of the exposed workforce were unknown and had to be estimated indirectly.
  • Claim records lacked information on exposure intensity and asbestos fiber type, and duration of exposure was generally incomplete.
  • Sensitivity analyses for the original models indicated that projected numbers could vary by up to plus or minus 50%.
  • SEER data had no occupation information, so they were not used in the 1994 model.
  • Asbestosis deaths were less than 2% of asbestosis claim counts and may reflect only the most extreme cases, which limits comparisons between mortality trends and claim trends.

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Asbestosis, Lung cancer, Mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Product Liability, Multidisciplinary Team.

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