Trends and the Economic Effect of Asbestos Bans and Decline in Asbestos Consumption and Production Worldwide

Our plain-English summary of Trends and the Economic Effect of Asbestos Bans and Decline in Asbestos Consumption and Production Worldwide, by L.P. Allen, J. Baez, M.E.C. Stern, et al (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2018).

The study

• Authors: L.P. Allen, J. Baez, M.E.C. Stern, K. Takahashi, F. George
• Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
• Published: 2018;15(3)
• Cited by: 34 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

Abstract

Although some countries have reduced asbestos consumption and instituted bans, other countries continue to produce and consume asbestos even as asbestos-related deaths mount and the associated societal costs are high. Asbestos production and consumption has declined globally; the number of bans has increased; and the speed at which countries have tapered off consumption has increased. Using country-level data, we study the economic impact of historical changes in the production and use of asbestos. We compare changes in gross domestic product (GDP) following the enactment of asbestos bans. We do not find any significant effect on GDP following an asbestos ban. In a regional case study, we compare changes in GDP and employment with changes in asbestos production. Regional-level data revealed a temporary employment decline at the local level that was then reversed.

In plain English

This was an economic analysis, not a medical study. The authors used U.S. Geological Survey data on national asbestos production and consumption from 1950 to 2013, a list of 67 countries with partial or complete asbestos bans, and United Nations data on gross domestic product (GDP). Among countries that had used large amounts of asbestos, the later a country's consumption peaked, the faster it fell to 25% of that peak. The yearly likelihood of reaching that point rose by 4.1% for each later peak year (p = 0.025). For example, Hungary, which peaked in 1980, took 14 years, while Chile, which peaked in 1995, took four. A statistical comparison of GDP growth before and after bans found no statistically significant effect of bans. In a case study of Quebec, Canada, provincial GDP showed no negative effect after the asbestos mines closed. Employment fell in the two mining regions but returned to pre-closure levels within two years. The authors noted that the country-level analysis had limited power to detect effects, because asbestos was a small part of national economies.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Economic (econometric) analysis of country-level data. It combined a Cox proportional hazards model of how fast consumption declined, a difference-in-differences model comparing GDP growth before and after bans, and a regional case study of Quebec, Canada.
• Who was studied: Asbestos-producing and asbestos-consuming countries, using national data from 1950 to 2013. The consumption-trend model included 49 countries that had consumed more than 250,000 tons, 38 of which had moved away from asbestos. The case study covered Quebec, Canada, and its two mining regions, Estrie and Chaudière-Appalaches.
• Exposure: Partial and complete national asbestos bans, and declines in asbestos production and consumption, including the closure of the asbestos mines in Quebec. No fiber types were specified.
• Main results:
  • Including countries still using asbestos, the likelihood that a country's consumption dropped to 25% of its peak in any given year increased by 4.1% for every later year in which its consumption peaked. The coefficient was 0.041 (95% CI 0.005 to 0.076, p = 0.025).
  • Examples of time taken to move away from asbestos: the United Kingdom peaked in 1960 and took 25 years; Hungary peaked in 1980 and took 14 years; Chile peaked in 1995 and took four years.
  • Across countries, there was no statistically significant effect of asbestos bans on GDP growth. The estimates were -0.012 (p = 0.302) in the main model, -0.015 (p = 0.55) with a control for consumption, and 0.009 (p = 0.866) in producing countries with a control for production.
  • In Quebec, the authors did not observe a negative impact on provincial GDP after the asbestos mines closed.
  • After the mines closed, employment in the Estrie region fell from 156,000 to 147,000 people. The employment rate there fell from 59.5% to 55.6%.
  • After the mines closed, employment in the Chaudière-Appalaches region fell from 226,000 to about 219,000 people. The employment rate there fell from 65.6% to 63.4%.
  • Within two years, employment in both mining regions had returned to pre-closure levels. Similar declines did not occur in the rest of Quebec.
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that the international asbestos market is shrinking and that countries are moving away from asbestos faster. Using country-level data, they did not find an observable negative economic impact after bans were introduced. They also concluded that continued asbestos use is expected to bring substantial health, removal and possible litigation costs.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The country-level analysis had limited power to detect effects, because asbestos production and consumption were typically not a large part of national GDP.
  • National statistics may hide large impacts on specialized economies or communities.
  • Because of data constraints, the ban analysis was limited to the country level.
  • The authors did not study why employment recovered in the Quebec mining regions. Whether migration or government intervention played a role is not known.

Related studies

• Asbestos and mesothelioma: worldwide trends — L. Kazan-Allen (2005)
• A worldwide ban on asbestos production and use: some recent progress, but more still to be done — M.R. Sim (2013)
• Ecological association between asbestos-related diseases and historical asbestos consumption: an international analysis — R.T. Lin, K. Takahashi, et al. (2007)
• North-south gradient of mesothelioma and asbestos consumption-production in the United States-Progresses since the 1st asbestos partial ban in 1973 — H. Sun (2019)
• Asbestos Consumption and Malignant Mesothelioma Mortality Trends in the Major User Countries — C. Gariazzo, A. Gasparrini, et al. (2023)
• Trends in occupational asbestos exposure and asbestos consumption over recent decades in Korea — D. Park, S. Choi, et al. (2008)

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