Prediction of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis in former Wittenoom asbestos workers

Our plain-English summary of Prediction of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis in former Wittenoom asbestos workers, by A. Rogers (British Journal of Industrial Medicine, 1992).

The study

• Author: A. Rogers
• Journal: British Journal of Industrial Medicine
• Published: 1992;49(6):451-2
• Type of article: Comment, Letter
• Cited by: 6 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher · Free full text
• In J-M's library: Johns-Manville's company medical library held a copy.

Summary of the article

In this letter, the author commented on models used by Berry (1991) to predict future mesothelioma incidence among people exposed at the Wittenoom crocidolite mine in Western Australia. The letter dealt only with mesothelioma. The author noted that Berry's estimates depended on the values chosen for lag time and lung clearance rates, that the assumption of reduced toxicity from fibre clearance was speculative, and that de Klerk et al had produced somewhat higher predictions. As an alternative, the author used the distribution of time since first asbestos exposure taken from occupational histories in the Australian Mesothelioma Surveillance Program. Assuming the same latency distribution applied to Wittenoom cases collected in 1980-5, the author calculated the total cases expected for each period of first employment and the number expected in each period of diagnosis. The author acknowledged that the method included environmentally exposed cases and assumed a similar distribution of age, occupation and exposure over the mine's operation, assumptions stated to be known to be incorrect. It also assumed the Wittenoom group was comparable with the whole Australian population. An estimate of 71 cases was considered reasonable compared with the 59 cases reported to the Australian register in 1986-90. The method predicted 525 mesotheliomas among the 6505 male and 411 female workers and past residents. Of these, 366 would occur in 1986-2020, peaking in 1991-95 and tailing off over the next 25 years. The author concluded that this fitted comfortably within the range of most likely values presented by Berry.

PubMed has no abstract for this study, and the article doesn't print one. We wrote this summary from the full article with the help of AI. It is not the authors' wording.

In plain English

This was a letter by one author responding to models by Berry (1991) that predicted future mesothelioma cases from the Wittenoom crocidolite mine. The author proposed an alternative method. It took the distribution of time since first asbestos exposure from occupational histories in the Australian mesothelioma surveillance program and applied it to Wittenoom cases collected in 1980-5. By this method the author predicted 525 mesotheliomas in total among the 6505 male and 411 female workforce and past residents. Of these, 366 would occur in 1986-2020, peaking in 1991-1995 and tailing off over the next 25 years. In the author's comparison table, the matching totals were 265-395 for Berry's estimates and 692 for de Klerk's. The author's estimate of 71 cases for 1986-90 was compared with 59 cases reported to the Australian Register in that period. The author concluded that the prediction fitted within Berry's range of most likely values. The author noted that the method included environmentally exposed cases. It also assumed that age, occupations and exposures stayed similar while the mine operated, which is known to be incorrect, and that the Wittenoom group was comparable with the whole Australian population.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Letter to the editor (correspondence) proposing an alternative method for predicting future mesothelioma cases, based on latency distribution
• Who was studied: Workforce and past residents of Wittenoom: 6505 males and 411 females. Predictions were based on Wittenoom mesothelioma cases collected in 1980-5.
• Exposure: Crocidolite from the Wittenoom mine
• Main results:
  • The latency method predicted a total of 525 mesotheliomas among the Wittenoom workforce and past residents, 366 of them in the period 1986-2020.
  • Predicted case numbers peaked in 1991-1995 and tailed off over the following 25 years.
  • The estimate of 71 cases for 1986-90 was compared with 59 cases reported to the Australian Register in 1986-90.
  • In the author's comparison table (Table 2), the totals were 366 for the latency method, 265-395 for Berry's estimates and 692 for de Klerk's estimates.
• The authors' conclusion: The author concluded that the latency-method prediction fitted within the range and distribution of most likely values presented by Berry.
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The method included environmentally exposed cases. It also assumed a similar distribution of age, occupations and exposures during the mine's operation, which the author states is known to be incorrect.
  • The method assumed the Wittenoom group was comparable with the whole Australian population.

Mines named here

Asbestos mines this study is about. Each mine's page says who ran it, when it worked, and what it produced.

• Wittenoom, Western Australia

All asbestos mines

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Asbestosis, Lung cancer, Mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Mesothelioma, Lung Cancer, Wittenoom, Crocidolite, Asbestos Exposure, Latency.

Related studies

• Prediction of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis in former Wittenoom asbestos workers — G. Berry (1991)
• The natural history of asbestosis in former crocidolite workers of Wittenoom Gorge — W. Cookson, N. De Klerk, et al. (1986)
• The additional risk of malignant mesothelioma in former workers and residents of Wittenoom with benign pleural disease or asbestosis — A. Reid, N. de Klerk, et al. (2005)
• Comparison of measures of exposure to asbestos in former crocidolite workers from Wittenoom Gorge, W. Australia — N.H. de Klerk, A.W. Musk, et al. (1996)
• Familial aggregation of malignant mesothelioma in former workers and residents of Wittenoom, Western Australia — N. de Klerk, H. Alfonso, et al. (2013)
• Predictions of future cases of asbestos-related disease among former miners and millers of crocidolite in Western Australia — N.H. de Klerk, B.K. Armstrong, et al. (1989)

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