Simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain

Our plain-English summary of Simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain, by M.D. Martínez-Miranda, B. Nielsen, J.P. Nielsen (Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2016).

The study

• Authors: M.D. Martínez-Miranda, B. Nielsen, J.P. Nielsen
• Journal: Occupational and Environmental Medicine
• Published: 2016;73(8):561-3
• Cited by: 6 articles, as counted by NIH iCite
• Read it: PubMed · Publisher

Abstract

Background: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available.

Methods: We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies.

Results: The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison.

Conclusions: Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models.

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

In plain English

This short report was a statistical forecasting study of future mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain. There are currently no detailed data on how many people were exposed to asbestos, so the authors tested a 'response-only' model that uses only counts of deaths, arranged by age and birth cohort. They fitted it to Health and Safety Executive records of male mesothelioma deaths at ages 25 to 89 for 1968 to 2013, and forecast only men born up to 1966. The model predicted a peak of 2079 deaths in 2017, with a 95% error band of 1981 to 2177. The article's conclusion section prints a different band for the same peak, 1998 to 2161. An existing model by Hodgson and colleagues, updated by the Health and Safety Executive with data to 2010, forecast a peak of 2003 deaths in 2015. A two-stage clonal expansion model using 2007 data forecast a peak of 1854 in 2010. When both main models were run from 2006 data, the response-only model forecast slightly better. The authors concluded that the simple model gives forecasts similar to those of existing models. They noted that it assumes the same age pattern for every birth cohort.

We wrote this plain-English summary from the full article with the help of AI, and a second AI model checked each sentence against the article. It is not the authors' wording; the abstract and the article are their own account.

What the study did and found

• Design: Short report: statistical forecasting study using an age-cohort Poisson regression model, compared with existing published forecasting models
• Who was studied: Mesothelioma death counts for Great Britain from the Health and Safety Executive, by age and period, 1968 to 2013. The analysis used men aged 25 to 89 years and forecast birth cohorts up to 1966.
• Exposure: No detailed data on the number of people exposed to asbestos fibres were available, and no exposure measure was used. The model works from death counts only. No fiber types are named.
• Main results:
  • Age-cohort response-only model (data to 2013, cohorts to 1966, men under 90): peak forecast of 2079 deaths in 2017, 95% error band (1981, 2177)
  • With intercept correction, the response-only peak forecast would rise slightly, to 2083
  • Hodgson et al model updated by the Health and Safety Executive to 2010 data (includes cohorts to 1986): peak forecast of 2003 deaths in 2015
  • Two-stage clonal expansion model using 2007 data: peak of 1854 deaths in 2010
  • In forecasts made from 2006 data, the age-cohort response-only model forecast slightly better than the Hodgson et al model
  • The age-cohort model fitted the 1968 to 2013 data reasonably well (deviance 2818.1, df=2816, p=0.485)
• The authors' conclusion: The authors concluded that a simple response model with an age-cohort structure gives an in-sample fit and forecasts similar to those from existing models, and needs less epidemiological insight
• Limitations the authors state:
  • The model assumes the same age profile for all birth cohorts
  • The 2013 age-cohort model and the Hodgson et al model (data to 2010) use different data, so they are not directly comparable
  • A more complex model could avoid the common age profile, but with very little data its uncertainty would be large, so the authors expected only a modest gain

Topics

The National Library of Medicine indexes this study under subjects our site covers: Mesothelioma.

Medical terms in this study, explained in our Lexicon: Mesothelioma, Asbestos Exposure, Dose-response relationship.

Related studies

• The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050 — J.T. Hodgson, D.M. McElvenny, et al. (2005)
• Chest physician-reported, work-related, long-latency respiratory disease in Great Britain — M. Carder, A. Darnton, et al. (2017)
• Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Britain using Bayesian methods — E. Tan, N. Warren, et al. (2010)
• Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain — L. Rushton, S.J. Hutchings, et al. (2012)
• The effect of smoking on the risk of lung cancer mortality for asbestos workers in Great Britain (1971-2005) — G. Frost, A. Darnton, et al. (2011)
• Mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 1968 to 2001 — D.M. McElvenny, A.J. Darnton, et al. (2005)

Browse more research in Occupational and Environmental Medicine, or return to medical research.