Risk Analysis

Our medical research library holds 36 studies published in Risk Analysis (1986–2022). Each entry links to the study's record on PubMed and, where there is one, to the publisher's page and a free full text. 32 have an abstract, the authors' own summary as PubMed records it: open "Abstract" to read it.

About the journal

• Publisher: Blackwell Publishers
• Published: 1981 to the present, United States
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0272-4332 (print), 1539-6924 (electronic)
• Its record in the NLM Catalog

2020s

• Authors' response to the letter to the editor on "characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups". M. Holton, J. Ellis, E. Anderson. 2022;42(10):2142-2144. Letter PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  We appreciate the opportunity to respond to the comments of the letter writer. The writer states in his Letter to the Editor that the findings in our publication are not interpretable and/or cannot be generalized due to the lack of understanding of the source mine and bulk content of the cosmetic talc used in the facial makeups. In brief, we performed an exposure simulation study using established industrial hygiene methods, planned and conducted by Certified Industrial Hygienists (CIHs), to assess asbestos exposures during the use of facial makeups that were found to contain very low levels of asbestos below the conventional detection limits of X-ray diffraction and polarized light microscopy. In total, 54 personal air samples and 72 area samples were collected from six different products. Out of the 126 samples collected and analyzed, asbestos was only found in eight samples (five personal samples and three area samples). A 95th percentile 24-h time-weighted average (TWA) result of 0.00008 fibers/cubic centimeter was calculated based on censored data and an assumed three applications per day. We believe these results may be of utility to understand the risk of low-level asbestos content in facial makeups regardless of source or bulk content, as described in our study, and do not find the writer's assertion of generalizability or interpretability to be compelling reasons not to apply our results, as is, for prospective purposes.

  © 2022 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups. M. Holton, J. Ellis, E. Anderson, et al. 2022;42(10):2129-2139. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  There has been renewed interest in the safety of cosmetics that may contain asbestos or other elongate mineral particles at very low levels as a naturally occurring contaminant. The authors evaluated asbestos exposure during the application of facial makeups in a constructed chamber simulating a bathroom space. The facial makeups tested included products previously found to have very low or "trace" asbestos content by governmental and commercial laboratories using a variety of bulk analysis methods. Tremolite asbestos was detected in five of 54 personal air samples and three of 72 area air samples in 18 simulations. The calculated geometric mean and 95th percentile task-based asbestos concentration associated with personal facial makeup use in this study, incorporating censored data, is 0.0015 and 0.0018 fiber per cubic centimeter (f/cc), respectively, with a corresponding 95th percentile 24-h time-weighted average (TWA) asbestos concentration of 0.00008 f/cc for three applications per day in a simulated bathroom with no active ventilation. Based on these results, cumulative non-occupational asbestos exposures confer a less than one in 1,000,000 risk of asbestos-related disease based on many typical usage patterns and less than 1/100,000 risk with upper-end lifetime usage patterns, using the US Environmental Protection Agency asbestos risk model.

  © 2022 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Holton et al., Characterization of asbestos exposures associated with the use of facial makeups. Risk Analysis, 42, 2129-2139. M.M. Finkelstein. 2022;42(10):2140-2141. Letter PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Holton and colleagues have performed a risk assessment after measuring asbestos released from several samples of facial makeup. Unfortunately, it is not possible to interpret or generalize their findings because the authors have not described the source(s) of the talc tested or the asbestos concentrations of the samples. The concentration of amphiboles varies widely between sources, and the authors are urged to divulge the locations of the ore bodies providing the talc for their samples, as well as the asbestos concentration of the samples, so that the results may be interpreted and possibly generalized.

  © 2022 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Integration of Evidence on Community Cancer Risks from Elongate Mineral Particles in Silver Bay, Minnesota. L.D. Dell, A.E. Gallagher, L.J. Yost, et al. 2021;41(9):1674-1692. PubMed · Publisher · Free full text

  Abstract

  The potential for cancer-related risks to community members from ambient exposure to elongate mineral particles (EMPs) in taconite processing has not been formally evaluated. We evaluated 926 ambient air samples including 12,928 EMPs (particle structures with length-to-width ratio ≥3:1) collected over 26 years near a taconite processing facility in Silver Bay, Minnesota. Eighty-two percent of EMPs were ≤3 μm in length and 97% of EMPs had an average aspect ratio <20:1. A total of 935 (7.3%) EMPs had length >5 μm and AR ≥3:1. Average ambient concentration of NIOSH countable amphibole EMPs over all years was 0.000387 EMPs per cubic centimeter (EMP/cm3 ). Of 12,765 nonchrysotile EMPs, the number of amphiboles with length and width dimensions that correlate best with asbestos-related carcinogenicity ranged from four (0.03%) to 13 (0.1%) and the associated ambient amphibole air concentrations ranged from 0.000003 to 0.000007 EMP/cm3 . After 65 years of taconite processing in Silver Bay, evidence of an increased risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer in community members who did not work in the taconite industry is lacking. The absence of an increased risk of asbestos-related cancer in the Silver Bay community is coherent with supporting evidence from epidemiological and toxicological studies, as well as ambient exposure data and lake sediment data collected in Minnesota Iron Range communities. Collectively, the data provide consistent evidence that nonasbestiform amphibole minerals lack the carcinogenic potential exhibited by amphibole asbestos.

  © 2021 Ramboll US Consulting, Inc. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

2010s

• Letter concerning: Burns AM, Barlow CA, Banducci AM, Unice KM, Sahmel J. Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products. M.M. Finkelstein. 2019;39(12):2601-2603. Letter PubMed · Publisher

• Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products. A.M. Burns, C.A. Barlow, A.M. Banducci, et al. 2019;39(10):2272-2294. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Over time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic-talc-containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were below levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current risk assessment practices, talc application scenarios, and exposure data. This analysis updates the previous FDA assessment by incorporating the current published exposure literature associated with consumer use of talcum powder and using the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonoccupational asbestos risk assessment approach to estimate potential cumulative asbestos exposure and risk for four use scenarios: (1) infant exposure during diapering; (2) adult exposure from infant diapering; (3) adult exposure from face powdering; and (4) adult exposure from body powdering. The estimated range of cumulative asbestos exposure potential for all scenarios (assuming an asbestos content of 0.1%) ranged from 0.0000021 to 0.0096 f/cc-yr and resulted in risk estimates that were within or below EPA's acceptable target risk levels. Consistent with the original FDA findings, exposure and corresponding health risk in this range were orders of magnitude below upper-bound estimates of cumulative asbestos exposure and risk at ambient levels, which have not been associated with increased incidence of asbestos-related disease.

  © 2019 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Ambient Asbestos Fiber Concentrations and Long-Term Trends in Pleural Mesothelioma Incidence between Urban and Rural Areas in the United States (1973-2012). M.E. Glynn, K.A. Keeton, S.H. Gaffney, et al. 2018;38(3):454-471. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Over the past 40 years, measured ambient asbestos concentrations in the United States have been higher in urban versus rural areas. The purpose of this study was to determine whether variations in ambient asbestos concentrations have influenced pleural mesothelioma risk in females (who generally lacked historic occupational asbestos exposure relative to males). Male pleural mesothelioma incidence trends were analyzed to provide perspective for female trends. Annual age-adjusted incidence rates from 1973 to 2012 were obtained from the SEER 9, 13, and 18 databases for urban and rural locations, and standardized rate ratios were calculated. Female rural rates exceeded urban rates in almost half of the years analyzed, although the increases were not statistically significant, which is in line with expectations if there was no observable increased risk for urban locations. In contrast, male urban rates were elevated over rural rates for nearly all years examined and were statistically significantly elevated for 22 of the 40 years. Trend analyses demonstrated that trends for females remained relatively constant over time, whereas male urban and rural incidence increased into the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decrease/leveling off. Annual female urban and rural incidence rates remained approximately five- to six-fold lower than male urban and rural incidence rates on average, consistent with the comparatively increased historical occupational asbestos exposure for males. The results suggest that differences in ambient asbestos concentrations, which have been reported to be 10-fold or greater across regions in the United States, have not influenced the risk of pleural mesothelioma.

  © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Letter Concerning: Glynn ME, Keeton KA, Gaffney SH, Sahmel J. Ambient Asbestos Fiber Concentrations and Long-Term Trends in Pleural Mesothelioma Incidence Between Urban and Rural Areas in the United States (1973-2012). Risk Analysis 2018;38(3):454-471. M.M. Finkelstein. 2018;38(8):1521-1523. Letter · Comment PubMed · Publisher

• Response to Letter to the Editor Regarding "Ambient Asbestos Fiber Concentrations and Long-Term Trends in Pleural Mesothelioma Incidence Between Urban and Rural Areas in the United States (1973-2012)" by Finkelstein. K.A. Keeton, M.E. Glynn, S.H. Gaffney, et al. 2018;38(8):1524-1528. Letter · Comment PubMed · Publisher

• A Bayesian Model and Stochastic Exposure (Dose) Estimation for Relative Exposure Risk Comparison Involving Asbestos-Containing Dropped Ceiling Panel Installation and Maintenance Tasks. F.W. Boelter, Y. Xia, J.D. Persky. 2017;37(9):1729-1741. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Assessing exposures to hazards in order to characterize risk is at the core of occupational hygiene. Our study examined dropped ceiling systems commonly used in schools and commercial buildings and lay-in ceiling panels that may have contained asbestos prior to the mid to late 1970s. However, most ceiling panels and tiles do not contain asbestos. Since asbestos risk relates to dose, we estimated the distribution of eight-hour TWA concentrations and one-year exposures (a one-year dose equivalent) to asbestos fibers (asbestos f/cc-years) for five groups of workers who may encounter dropped ceilings: specialists, generalists, maintenance workers, nonprofessional do-it-yourself (DIY) persons, and other tradespersons who are bystanders to ceiling work. Concentration data (asbestos f/cc) were obtained through two exposure assessment studies in the field and one chamber study. Bayesian and stochastic models were applied to estimate distributions of eight-hour TWAs and annual exposures (dose). The eight-hour TWAs for all work categories were below current and historic occupational exposure limits (OELs). Exposures to asbestos fibers from dropped ceiling work would be categorized as "highly controlled" for maintenance workers and "well controlled" for remaining work categories, according to the American Industrial Hygiene Association exposure control rating system. Annual exposures (dose) were found to be greatest for specialists, followed by maintenance workers, generalists, bystanders, and DIY. On a comparative basis, modeled dose and thus risk from dropped ceilings for all work categories were orders of magnitude lower than published exposures for other sources of banned friable asbestos-containing building material commonly encountered in construction trades.

  © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

• Assessment of Health Risk from Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder. E.L. Anderson, P.J. Sheehan, R.M. Kalmes, et al. 2017;37(5):918-929. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  This study's objective is to assess the risk of asbestos-related disease being contracted by past users of cosmetic talcum powder. To our knowledge, no risk assessment studies using exposure data from historical exposures or chamber simulations have been published. We conducted activity-based sampling with cosmetic talcum powder samples from five opened and previously used containers that are believed to have been first manufactured and sold in the 1960s and 1970s. These samples had been subject to conflicting claims of asbestos content; samples with the highest claimed asbestos content were tested. The tests were conducted in simulated-bathroom controlled chambers with volunteers who were talc users. Air sampling filters were prepared by direct preparation techniques and analyzed by phase contrast microscopy (PCM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray (EDX) spectra, and selective area diffraction (SAED). TEM analysis for asbestos resulted in no confirmed asbestos fibers and only a single fiber classified as "ambiguous." Hypothetical treatment of this fiber as if it were asbestos yields a risk of 9.6 × 10-7 (under one in one million) for a lifetime user of this cosmetic talcum powder. The exposure levels associated with these results range from zero to levels far below those identified in the epidemiology literature as posing a risk for asbestos-related disease, and substantially below published historical environmental background levels. The approaches used for this study have potential application to exposure evaluations of other talc or asbestos-containing materials and consumer products.

  © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Characterizing and Communicating Risk with Exposure Reconstruction and Bayesian Analysis: Historical Locomotive Maintenance/Repair Associated with Asbestos Woven Tape Pipe Lagging. F.W. Boelter, J.D. Persky, D.M. Podraza, et al. 2016;36(2):228-43. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Our reconstructed historical work scenarios incorporating a vintage 1950s locomotive can assist in better understanding the historical asbestos exposures associated with past maintenance and repairs and fill a literature data gap. Air sampling data collected during the exposure scenarios and analyzed by NIOSH 7400 (PCM) and 7402 (PCME) methodologies show personal breathing zone asbestiform fiber exposures were below the current OSHA exposure limits for the eight-hour TWA permissible exposure limit (PEL) of 0.1 f/cc (range <0.007-0.064 PCME f/cc) and the 30-minute short-term excursion limit (EL) of 1.0 f/cc (range <0.045-0.32 PCME f/cc) and orders of magnitude below historic OSHA PEL and ACGIH TLVs. Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) results demonstrate that the 95th percentile point estimate falls into an AIHA exposure category 3 or 4 as compared to the current PEL and category 1 when compared to the historic PEL. BDA results demonstrate that bystander exposures would be classified as category 0. Our findings were also significantly below the published calcium magnesium insulations exposure range of 2.5 to 7.5 f/cc reported for historic work activities of pipefitters, mechanics, and boilermakers. Diesel-electric locomotive pipe systems were typically insulated with a woven tape lagging that may have been chrysotile asbestos and handled, removed, and reinstalled during repair and maintenance activities. We reconstructed historical work scenarios containing asbestos woven tape pipe lagging that have not been characterized in the published literature. The historical work scenarios were conducted by a retired railroad pipefitter with 37 years of experience working with materials and locomotives.

  © 2015 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

• Comparative Risks of Cancer from Drywall Finishing Based on Stochastic Modeling of Cumulative Exposures to Respirable Dusts and Chrysotile Asbestos Fibers. F.W. Boelter, Y. Xia, L. Dell. 2015;35(5):859-71. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Sanding joint compounds is a dusty activity and exposures are not well characterized. Until the mid 1970s, asbestos-containing joint compounds were used by some people such that sanding could emit dust and asbestos fibers. We estimated the distribution of 8-h TWA concentrations and cumulative exposures to respirable dusts and chrysotile asbestos fibers for four worker groups: (1) drywall specialists, (2) generalists, (3) tradespersons who are bystanders to drywall finishing, and (4) do-it-yourselfers (DIYers). Data collected through a survey of experienced contractors, direct field observations, and literature were used to develop prototypical exposure scenarios for each worker group. To these exposure scenarios, we applied a previously developed semi-empirical mathematical model that predicts area as well as personal breathing zone respirable dust concentrations. An empirical factor was used to estimate chrysotile fiber concentrations from respirable dust concentrations. On a task basis, we found mean 8-h TWA concentrations of respirable dust and chrysotile fibers are numerically highest for specialists, followed by generalists, DIYers, and bystander tradespersons; these concentrations are estimated to be in excess of the respective current but not historical Threshold Limit Values. Due to differences in frequency of activities, annual cumulative exposures are highest for specialists, followed by generalists, bystander tradespersons, and DIYers. Cumulative exposure estimates for chrysotile fibers from drywall finishing are expected to result in few, if any, mesothelioma or excess lung cancer deaths according to recently published risk assessments. Given the dustiness of drywall finishing, we recommend diligence in the use of readily available source controls.

  © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Evaluation of take-home exposure and risk associated with the handling of clothing contaminated with chrysotile asbestos. J. Sahmel, C.A. Barlow, B. Simmons, et al. 2014;34(8):1448-68. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The potential for para-occupational (or take-home) exposures from contaminated clothing has been recognized for the past 60 years. To better characterize the take-home asbestos exposure pathway, a study was performed to measure the relationship between airborne chrysotile concentrations in the workplace, the contamination of work clothing, and take-home exposures and risks. The study included air sampling during two activities: (1) contamination of work clothing by airborne chrysotile (i.e., loading the clothing), and (2) handling and shaking out of the clothes. The clothes were contaminated at three different target airborne chrysotile concentrations (0-0.1 fibers per cubic centimeter [f/cc], 1-2 f/cc, and 2-4 f/cc; two events each for 31-43 minutes; six events total). Arithmetic mean concentrations for the three target loading levels were 0.01 f/cc, 1.65 f/cc, and 2.84 f/cc (National Institute of Occupational Health and Safety [NIOSH] 7402). Following the loading events, six matched 30-minute clothes-handling and shake-out events were conducted, each including 15 minutes of active handling (15-minute means; 0.014-0.097 f/cc) and 15 additional minutes of no handling (30-minute means; 0.006-0.063 f/cc). Percentages of personal clothes-handling TWAs relative to clothes-loading TWAs were calculated for event pairs to characterize exposure potential during daily versus weekly clothes-handling activity. Airborne concentrations for the clothes handler were 0.2-1.4% (eight-hour TWA or daily ratio) and 0.03-0.27% (40-hour TWA or weekly ratio) of loading TWAs. Cumulative chrysotile doses for clothes handling at airborne concentrations tested were estimated to be consistent with lifetime cumulative chrysotile doses associated with ambient air exposure (range for take-home or ambient doses: 0.00044-0.105 f/cc year).

  © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Exposures from chrysotile-containing joint compound: evaluation of new model relating respirable dust to fiber concentrations. G.P. Brorby, P.J. Sheehan, D.W. Berman, et al. 2013;33(1):161-76. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The potential for fiber exposure during historical use of chrysotile-containing joint compounds (JCC) has been documented, but the published data are of limited use for reconstructing exposures and assessing worker risk. Consequently, fiber concentration distributions for workers sanding JCC were independently derived by applying a recently developed model based on published dust measurements from sanding modern-day (asbestos-free) joint compound and compared to fiber concentration distributions based on limited historical measurements. This new procedure relies on factors that account for (i) differences in emission rates between modern-day and JCC and (ii) the number of fibers (quantified by phase contrast microscopy [PCM]) per mass of dust generated by sanding JCC, as determined in a bench-scale chamber study using a recreated JCC, that convert respirable dust concentrations to fiber concentrations. Airborne respirable PCM-fiber concentration medians (and 95% confidence intervals) derived for output variables using the new procedure were 0.26 (0.039, 1.7) f/cm(3) and 0.078 (0.013, 0.47) f/cm(3) , and corresponding total fiber concentrations were 1.2 (0.17, 9.2) f/cm(3) and 0.37 (0.056, 2.5) f/cm(3) , in enclosed and nonenclosed environments, respectively. Corresponding estimates of respirable and total PCM fiber concentrations measured historically during sanding of asbestos-containing joint compound-adjusted for differences between peak and time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations and documented analytical preparation and sampling artifacts-were 0.15 (0.019, 0.95) f/cm(3) and 0.86 (0.11, 5.4) f/cm(3) , respectively. The PCM-fiber concentration distributions estimated using the new procedure bound the distribution estimated from adjusted TWA historical fiber measurements, suggesting reasonable consistency of these estimates taking into account uncertainties addressed in this study.

  © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Apples to apples: the origin and magnitude of differences in asbestos cancer risk estimates derived using varying protocols. D.W. Berman. 2011;31(8):1308-26. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Given that new protocols for assessing asbestos-related cancer risk have recently been published, questions arise concerning how they compare to the "IRIS" protocol currently used by regulators. The newest protocols incorporate findings from 20 additional years of literature. Thus, differences between the IRIS and newer Berman and Crump protocols are examined to evaluate whether these protocols can be reconciled. Risks estimated by applying these protocols to real exposure data from both laboratory and field studies are also compared to assess the relative health protectiveness of each protocol. The reliability of risks estimated using the two protocols are compared by evaluating the degree with which each potentially reproduces the known epidemiology study risks. Results indicate that the IRIS and Berman and Crump protocols can be reconciled; while environment-specific variation within fiber type is apparently due primarily to size effects (not addressed by IRIS), the 10-fold (average) difference between amphibole asbestos risks estimated using each protocol is attributable to an arbitrary selection of the lowest of available mesothelioma potency factors in the IRIS protocol. Thus, the IRIS protocol may substantially underestimate risk when exposure is primarily to amphibole asbestos. Moreover, while the Berman and Crump protocol is more reliable than the IRIS protocol overall (especially for predicting amphibole risk), evidence is presented suggesting a new fiber-size-related adjustment to the Berman and Crump protocol may ultimately succeed in reconciling the entire epidemiology database. However, additional data need to be developed before the performance of the adjusted protocol can be fully validated.

  © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

• Potency factors for risk assessment at Libby, Montana. S.H. Moolgavkar, J. Turim, D.D. Alexander, et al. 2010;30(8):1240-8. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  We reanalyzed the Libby vermiculite miners' cohort assembled by Sullivan to estimate potency factors for lung cancer, mesothelioma, nonmalignant respiratory disease (NMRD), and all-cause mortality associated with exposure to Libby fibers. Our principal statistical tool for analyses of lung cancer, NMRD, and total mortality in the cohort was the time-dependent proportional hazards model. For mesothelioma, we used an extension of the Peto formula. For a cumulative exposure to Libby fiber of 100 f/mL-yr, our estimates of relative risk (RR) are as follows: lung cancer, RR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) =[1.06, 1.17]; NMRD, RR = 1.14, 95% CI =[1.09, 1.18]; total mortality, RR = 1.06, 95% CI =[1.04, 1.08]. These estimates were virtually identical when analyses were restricted to the subcohort of workers who were employed for at least one year. For mesothelioma, our estimate of potency is K(M) = 0.5 x 10(-8), 95% CI =[0.3 x 10(-8), 0.8 x 10(-8)]. Finally, we estimated the mortality ratios standardized against the U.S. population for lung cancer, NMRD, and total mortality and obtained estimates that were in good agreement with those reported by Sullivan. The estimated potency factors form the basis for a quantitative risk assessment at Libby.

2000s

• Assessment of inhalation exposures and potential health risks to the general population that resulted from the collapse of the World Trade Center towers. M. Lorber, H. Gibb, L. Grant, et al. 2007;27(5):1203-21. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  In the days following the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001 (9/11), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impact of emissions from that disaster. Using these data, EPA conducted an inhalation exposure and human health risk assessment to the general population. This assessment does not address exposures and potential impacts that could have occurred to rescue workers, firefighters, and other site workers, nor does it address exposures that could have occurred in the indoor environment. Contaminants evaluated include particulate matter (PM), metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, asbestos, volatile organic compounds, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, silica, and synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs). This evaluation yielded three principal findings. (1) Persons exposed to extremely high levels of ambient PM and its components, SVFs, and other contaminants during the collapse of the WTC towers, and for several hours afterward, were likely to be at risk for acute and potentially chronic respiratory effects. (2) Available data suggest that contaminant concentrations within and near ground zero (GZ) remained significantly elevated above background levels for a few days after 9/11. Because only limited data on these critical few days were available, exposures and potential health impacts could not be evaluated with certainty for this time period. (3) Except for inhalation exposures that may have occurred on 9/11 and a few days afterward, the ambient air concentration data suggest that persons in the general population were unlikely to suffer short-term or long-term adverse health effects caused by inhalation exposures. While this analysis by EPA evaluated the potential for health impacts based on measured air concentrations, epidemiological studies conducted by organizations other than EPA have attempted to identify actual impacts. Such studies have identified respiratory effects in worker and general populations, and developmental effects in newborns whose mothers were near GZ on 9/11 or shortly thereafter. While researchers are not able to identify specific times and even exactly which contaminants are the cause of these effects, they have nonetheless concluded that exposure to WTC contaminants (and/or maternal stress, in the case of developmental effects) resulted in these effects, and have identified the time period including 9/11 itself and the days and few weeks afterward as a period of most concern based on high concentrations of key pollutants in the air and dust.

• Laypeople's and experts' perception of nanotechnology hazards. M. Siegrist, C. Keller, H. Kastenholz, et al. 2007;27(1):59-69. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Public perception of nanotechnology may influence the realization of technological advances. Laypeople's (N=375) and experts' (N=46) perception of 20 different nanotechnology applications and three nonnanotechnology applications were examined. The psychometric paradigm was utilized and applications were described in short scenarios. Results showed that laypeople and experts assessed asbestos as much more risky than nanotechnology applications. Analyses of aggregated data suggested that perceived dreadfulness of applications and trust in governmental agencies are important factors in determining perceived risks. Similar results were observed for experts and laypeople, but the latter perceived greater risks than the former. Analyses of individual data showed that trust, perceived benefits, and general attitudes toward technology influenced the perceived risk of laypeople. In the expert sample, confidence in governmental agencies was an important predictor of risks associated with nanotechnology applications. Results suggest that public concerns about nanotechnology would diminish if measures were taken to enhance laypeople's trust in governmental agencies.

• Some limitations of aggregate exposure metrics. L.A. Cox, D.A. Popken. 2007;27(2):439-45. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Aggregate exposure metrics based on sums or weighted averages of component exposures are widely used in risk assessments of complex mixtures, such as asbestos-associated dusts and fibers. Allowed exposure levels based on total particle or fiber counts and estimated ambient concentrations of such mixtures may be used to make costly risk-management decisions intended to protect human health and to remediate hazardous environments. We show that, in general, aggregate exposure information alone may be inherently unable to guide rational risk-management decisions when the components of the mixture differ significantly in potency and when the percentage compositions of the mixture exposures differ significantly across locations. Under these conditions, which are not uncommon in practice, aggregate exposure metrics may be "worse than useless," in that risk-management decisions based on them are less effective than decisions that ignore the aggregate exposure information and select risk-management actions at random. The potential practical significance of these results is illustrated by a case study of 27 exposure scenarios in El Dorado Hills, California, where applying an aggregate unit risk factor (from EPA's IRIS database) to aggregate exposure metrics produces average risk estimates about 25 times greater - and of uncertain predictive validity - compared to risk estimates based on specific components of the mixture that have been hypothesized to pose risks of human lung cancer and mesothelioma.

• Mesothelioma: risk apportionment among asbestos exposure sources. B. Price, A. Ware. 2005;25(4):937-43. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The mesothelioma epidemic in the United States, which peaked during the 2000-2004 period, can be traced to high-level asbestos exposures experienced by males in occupational settings prior to the full recognition of the disease-causing potential of asbestos and the establishment of enforceable asbestos exposure limits by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) in 1971. Many individuals diagnosed with mesothelioma where asbestos has been identified as a contributing cause of the disease have filed claims seeking compensation from asbestos settlement trusts or through the court system. An individual with mesothelioma typically has been exposed to asbestos in more than one setting and from more than one asbestos product. Apportioning risk for mesothelioma among contributing factors is an ongoing problem faced by occupational disease compensation boards, juries, parties responsible for paying damages, and currently by the U.S. Senate in its efforts to formulate a bill establishing an asbestos settlement trust. In this article we address the following question: If an individual with mesothelioma where asbestos has been identified as a contributing cause were to be compensated for his or her disease, how should that compensation be apportioned among those responsible for the asbestos exposures? For the purposes of apportionment, we assume that asbestos is the only cause of mesothelioma and that every asbestos exposure contributes, albeit differentially, to the risk. We use an extension of the mesothelioma risk model initially proposed in the early 1980s to quantify the contribution to risk of each exposure as a percentage of the total risk. The percentage for each specific discrete asbestos exposure depends on the start and end dates, the intensity, and the asbestos fiber type for the exposure. We provide justification for the use of the mesothelioma risk model for apportioning risk and discuss how to assess uncertainty associated with its application.

• Bounding poorly characterized risks: a lung cancer example. M. Ha-Duong, E.A. Casman, M.G. Morgan. 2004;24(5):1071-83. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  For diseases with more than one risk factor, the sum of probabilistic estimates of the number of cases caused by each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases observed, especially when uncertainties about exposure and dose response for some risk factors are high. In this study, we outline a method of bounding the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not due to specific well-studied causes. Such information serves as a "reality check" for estimates of the impacts of the minor risk factors, and, as such, complements the traditional risk analysis. With lung cancer as our example, we allocate portions of the observed lung cancer mortality to known causes (such as smoking, residential radon, and asbestos fibers) and describe the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. The interactions among the risk factors are also quantified, to the extent possible. We then infer an upper bound on the residual mortality due to "other" causes, using a consistency constraint on the total number of deaths, the maximum uncertainty principle, and the mathematics originally developed of imprecise probabilities.

• Mesothelioma among brake mechanics: an expanded analysis of a case-control study. P.A. Hessel, M.J. Teta, M. Goodman, et al. 2004;24(3):547-52. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has begun discussions to consider its assessment of asbestos toxicity related to mineral form and fiber size. Brake workers are typically exposed to short chrysotile fibers. To explore the mesothelioma risk among brake workers, considering other occupational exposures to asbestos, data from a study that was published previously were obtained and the analysis was extended. The National Cancer Institute provided data from a case-control study of mesothelioma. Because many participants with a history of brake work also had employment in other asbestos-related occupations, mesothelioma cases and controls were compared for a history of brake work, controlling for employment in eight occupations with potential asbestos exposure. A stratified analysis was also performed excluding those with any of the eight occupations. Possible interactions between brake work and other occupational exposures related to risk of mesothelioma were also examined. The odds ratio (OR) for employment in brake installation or repair was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.30-1.60) when controlled for insulation or shipbuilding. When a history of employment in any of the eight occupations with potential asbestos exposure was controlled, the OR was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.36-1.80). ORs did not increase with increasing duration of brake work. Exclusion of those with any of the eight exposures resulted in an OR of 0.62 (95% CI: 0.01-4.71) for occupational brake work. There was no evidence of an interaction between brake work and other occupational exposures. These latter analyses were based on small numbers of exposed cases. The results are consistent with the existing literature indicating that brake work does not increase the risk of mesothelioma and adds to the evidence that fiber type and size are important determinants of mesothelioma risk.

• The asbestos case: a comment on the appointment and use of nonpartisan experts in world trade organization dispute resolution involving health risk. R.S. Carruth, B.D. Goldstein. 2004;24(2):471-81. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The World Trade Organization is currently evolving its approach to incorporating scientific and technological evidence into its dispute-resolution process. In European Communities-Measures Affecting Asbestos and Asbestos-Containing Products, the Panel was faced with a large amount of complex and conflicting scientific evidence presented by the partisan experts. The Asbestos Panel's solution was to appoint independent, nonpartisan experts to help it understand and evaluate the scientific evidence. While this was far better than trying to unravel the conflicting scientific evidence on its own, two aspects of the Panel's adopted procedure merit scrutiny. First, the expert-selection process used by the Panel may not assure that the collective expertise of the appointed experts is broad enough when the dispute involves multidisciplinary scientific issues. Second, the process adopted by the Panel for consulting the appointed experts-which involved individual consultation rather than a consensus process-may leave a panel with a distorted or confused picture of the science. A consensus approach is the best means of obtaining scientific advice from appointed experts; it is most calculated to provide a clear and accurate report of the scientific information needed by a panel to make a fair and informed decision on the dispute before it. The underlying principle of world trade agreements is that it is beneficial to all of us to have free trade. Among other things, this requires an effective means of resolving disputes, and increasingly that includes disputes involving complex scientific and technological issues. This can be achieved only if the parties have confidence that their disputes will be decided in a fair and informed manner, based on the best science available. To achieve this goal, we suggest that future WTO panels depart in certain respects from the procedures utilized by the Asbestos Panel.

• The precautionary principle and/or risk assessment in World Trade Organization decisions: a possible role for risk perception. B. Goldstein, R.S. Carruth. 2004;24(2):491-9. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Risk analysis has been recognized and validated in World Trade Organization (WTO) decision processes. In recent years the precautionary principle has been proposed as an additional or alternative approach to standard risk assessment. The precautionary principle has also been advocated by some who see it as part of postmodern democracy in which more power is given to the public on health and safety matters relative to the judgments of technocrats. A more cynical view is that the precautionary principle is particularly championed by the European Community as a means to erect trade barriers. The WTO ruling against the European Community's trade barrier against beef from hormone-treated cattle seemed to support the use of risk assessment and appeared to reject the argument that the precautionary principle was a legitimate basis for trade barriers. However, a more recent WTO decision on asbestos contains language suggesting that the precautionary principle, in the form of taking into account public perception, may be acceptable as a basis for a trade barrier. This decision, if followed in future WTO trade disputes, such as for genetically modified foods, raises many issues central to the field of risk analysis. It is too early to tell whether the precautionary principle will become accepted in WTO decisions, either as a supplement or a substitute for standard risk assessment. But it would undermine the value of the precautionary principle if this principle were misused to justify unwarranted trade barriers.

• Varying risk comparison elements: effects on public reactions. B.B. Johnson. 2004;24(1):103-14. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Expanding a limited empirical base on effects of risk comparisons, a pilot experiment explored how varying elements of such comparisons might influence public response. The scenario used was a hypothetical trial of an asbestos-installing firm for putting students and staff at a junior high school at "unreasonable risk," first used by Slovic et al. (1990). Study participants played the role of jurors in the trial, asked to rate the risk, the firm's guilt, whether it should be made liable for future health effects, whether the school should be occupied in its current condition, and whether the asbestos should be removed at a cost of 3 million dollars. Opportunity samples of New Jersey residents (n= 309) received information intended to vary four comparison attributes: number of dimensions of comparison; single versus multiple ways of expressing mortality; a narrative to explain and justify the risk comparison; and the hypothetical role of the participant (juror vs. parent). The dependent variable was a hazard scale constructed from four of the five postcomparison judgments. ANOVA found format variations swamped in their effect by concern about asbestos, with the absence of a narrative and the parental role being the only attributes that increased negative risk reactions. Multiple regression analyses found that multidimensionality, narrative, role, and the presence of any risk comparison at all had significant effects when these (plus death formats) were the only independent variables. However, only multidimensionality (which increased negative reactions) retained significance when asbestos concern, risk beliefs (no safe level of exposure to a carcinogen; any exposure leads to cancer), and demographic variables were added to the analysis. Concern and risk beliefs alone explained 33% of variance in hazard scores; adding demographics and risk comparison variables only raised explained variance to 36% (having children at home and being exposed to multidimensional risk comparisons raised scores; age and income lowered them). The results underline the potentially small effect of risk comparison information on risk views (at least between subjects), but offer some insight into aspects of message design left unexplored in empirical literature to date.

• Stability and inoculation of risk comparisons' effects under conflict: replicating and extending the "asbestos jury" study by Slovic et al. B.B. Johnson. 2002;22(4):777-88. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Promotion or criticism of risk comparisons in risk communication has far exceeded empirical tests of their effects. Slovic et al. (1990) experimented with a hypothetical jury trial in which an asbestos-installing firm was accused of subjecting school occupants to unreasonable risk. A risk comparison sharply reduced subjects' estimates of risk and judgments that the firm was guilty, but a critique of the risk comparison had risk estimates and guilt judgments rebounding to the original (without risk comparison) level. Slovic et al. concluded that risk comparisons' effects were highly unstable, at least in conflict-ridden situations such as a jury trial. The present study replicates and extends this important study, using the same stimuli and questions. The respective effects of the risk comparison and the critique recurred, although much less sharply than in Slovic et al. Moreover, judgments of guilt, risk, and other aspects of the case seemed shaped more by demographics and beliefs about risk generically (e.g., about the likelihood of cancer after exposure to a carcinogen) than by either risk comparison or critique. A variant design, in which the defense's expert witness dismissed potential criticisms of the risk comparison, appeared to "inoculate" people against shifting their views after seeing the critique. Overall, these results show that risk comparisons might change some beliefs about risks in conflict and that "inoculation" can reduce vulnerability to criticism. However, the results also show strong limits on effects of both comparisons and their critiques: they shifted only a minority of judgments and had small effects relative to people's social locations and prior risk beliefs.

1990s

• The sizes, shapes, and mineralogy of asbestos structures that induce lung tumors or mesothelioma in AF/HAN rats following inhalation. D.W. Berman, K.S. Crump, E.J. Chatfield, et al. 1995;15(2):181-95. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Data from inhalation studies in which AF/HAN rats were exposed to nine different types of asbestos dusts (in 13 separate experiments) are employed in a statistical analysis to determine if a measure of asbestos exposure (expressed as concentrations of structures with defined sizes, shapes and mineralogy) can be identified that satisfactorily predicts the observed lung tumor or mesothelioma incidence in the experiments. Due to limitations in the characterization of asbestos structures in the original studies, new exposure measures were developed from samples of the original dusts that were re-generated and analyzed by transmission electron microscopy using a direct transfer technique. This analysis provided detailed information on the mineralogy (i.e., chrysotile, amosite, crocidolite or tremolite), type (i.e., fiber, bundle, cluster, or matrix), size (length and width) and complexity (i.e., number of identifiable components of a cluster or matrix) of each individual structure. No univariate measure of exposure was found to provide an adequate description of the lung tumor responses observed among the inhalation studies, although the measure most highly correlated with tumor incidence is the concentration of structures > or = 20 microns in length. Multivariate measures of exposure were identified that do adequately describe the lung tumor responses. Structures contributing to lung tumor risk appear to be long (> or = 5 microns) thin (0.4 microns) fibers and bundles, with a possible contribution by long and very thick (> or = 5 microns) complex clusters and matrices. Potency appears to increase with increasing length, with structures longer than 40 microns being about 500 times more potent than structures between 5 and 40 microns in length. Structures < 5 microns in length do not appear to make any contribution to lung tumor risk. This analysis did not find a difference in the potency of chrysotile and amphibole toward the induction of lung tumors. However, mineralogy appears to be important in the induction of mesothelioma with chrysotile being less potent than amphibole.

• High risk or low: how location on a "risk ladder" affects perceived risk. P.M. Sandman, N.D. Weinstein, P. Miller. 1994;14(1):35-45. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Efforts to explain risk magnitude often rely on a "risk ladder" in which exposure levels and associated risk estimates are arrayed with low levels at the bottom and high ones at the top. Two experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that perceived threat and intended mitigation vary with the location of the subject's assigned level on the risk ladder. Subjects were New Jersey homeowners, asked to assume a particular level of radon or asbestos contamination in their homes, to read a brochure explaining the risk, and then to complete a questionnaire. Both studies found that the difference between an assigned level one-quarter of the way up the ladder and the same level three-quarters of the way up the ladder significantly affected threat perception; the effect on mitigation intentions was significant in only one of the studies. Variations in assigned risk also affected threat perception and mitigation intentions. Variations in test magnitude (e.g., 15 fibers per liter vs. 450 fibers per cubic foot, roughly equivalent risks) had no effect, nor did the distinction between radon and asbestos affect the dependent variables. These findings suggest that communicators can design risk ladders to emphasize particular risk characteristics.

• Comments on Chesson et al. Interpretation of airborne asbestos measurements. K.S. Crump. 1991;11(3):367-71. Comment · Letter PubMed · Publisher

• Human health risks associated with asbestos abatement. P.C. Chrostowski, S.A. Foster, E.L. Anderson. 1991;11(3):465-81. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Upperbound lifetime excess cancer risks were calculated for activities associated with asbestos abatement using a risk assessment framework developed for EPA's Superfund program. It was found that removals were associated with cancer risks to workers which were often greater than the commonly accepted cancer risk of 1 x 10(-6), although lower than occupational exposure limits associated with risks of 1 x 10(-3). Removals had little effect in reducing risk to school populations. Risks to teachers and students in school buildings containing asbestos were approximately the same as risks associated with exposure to ambient asbestos by the general public and were below the levels typically of concern to regulatory agencies. During abatement, however, there were increased risks to both workers and nearby individuals. Careless, everyday building maintenance generated the greatest risk to workers followed by removals and encapsulation. If asbestos abatement was judged by the risk criteria applied to EPA's Superfund program, the no-action alternative would likely be selected in preference to removal in a majority of cases. These conclusions should only be interpreted within the context of an overall asbestos risk management program, which includes consideration of specific fiber types and sizes, sampling and analytical limitations, physical condition of asbestos-containing material, episodic peak exposures, and the number of people potentially exposed.

• Interpretation of airborne asbestos measurements. J. Chesson, J.D. Rench, B.D. Schultz, et al. 1990;10(3):437-47. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is the preferred method of measuring airborne asbestos in buildings, but TEM measurements cannot be used directly in the existing equations relating risk to exposure because the equations are based on measurements made with a different technique--phase contrast microscopy (PCM). Comparison between measurements made by different methods is not simple because the methods differ in the size of particles they can detect, and the relationship between exposure and disease is thought to depend on, among other things, asbestos fiber size. Previous suggestions for converting TEM measurements to PCM equivalents lack generality because they fail to take into account the size distribution of the asbestos particles and the expectation that fiber-size distributions in current nonoccupational environments could differ from the workplaces of the past on which the risk equations are based. A mathematical model is presented for investigating the conversion of airborne asbestos measurements made by one method to an equivalent measurement made by another method. "Equivalent" means having the same potential to cause disease. The model clarifies the issues of concern and suggests approaches for obtaining meaningful conversion factors that will allow TEM measurements to be used in PCM-based risk equations.

• Risk assessment methodologies for passive smoking-induced lung cancer. J.L. Repace, A.H. Lowrey. 1990;10(1):27-37. Review PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Risk assessment methodologies have been successfully applied to control societal risk from outdoor air pollutants. They are now being applied to indoor air pollutants such as environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and radon. Nonsmokers' exposures to ETS have been assessed based on dosimetry of nicotine, its metabolite, continine, and on exposure to the particulate phase of ETS. Lung cancer responses have been based on both the epidemiology of active and of passive smoking. Nine risk assessments of nonsmokers' lung cancer risk from exposure to ETS have been performed. Some have estimated risks for lifelong nonsmokers only; others have included ex-smokers; still others have estimated total deaths from all causes. To facilitate interstudy comparison, in some cases lung cancers had to be interpolated from a total, or the authors' original estimate had to be adjusted to include ex-smokers. Further, all estimates were adjusted to 1988. Excluding one study whose estimate differs from the mean of the others by two orders of magnitude, the remaining risk assessments are in remarkable agreement. The mean estimate is approximately 5000 +/- 2400 nonsmokers' lung cancer deaths (LCDSs) per year. This is a 25% greater risk to nonsmokers than is indoor radon, and is about 57 times greater than the combined estimated cancer risk from all the hazardous outdoor air pollutants currently regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency: airborne radionuclides, asbestos, arsenic, benzene, coke oven emissions, and vinyl chloride.

1980s

• Projections of cancer risks attributable to future exposure to asbestos. J.A. Mauskopf. 1987;7(4):477-86. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  To assess the maximum possible impact of further government regulation of asbestos exposure, projections were made of the use of asbestos in nine product categories for the years 1985-2000. A life table risk assessment model was then developed to estimate the excess cases of cancer and lost person-years of life likely to occur among those occupationally and nonoccupationally exposed to the nine asbestos product categories manufactured in 1985-2000. These estimates were made under the assumption that government regulation remains at its 1985 level. Use of asbestos in the nine product categories was predicted to decline in all cases except for friction products. The risk assessment results show that, although the cancer risks from future exposure to asbestos are significantly less than those from past exposures, in the absence of more stringent regulations, a health risk remains.

• The cost of compensating asbestos victims under the Occupational Disease Compensation Act of 1983. F.B. Siskind. 1987;7(1):59-69. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  The potentially huge financial liability due to asbestos product suits and the resulting filings for reorganization in bankruptcy by Manville, UNR Industries, Inc., and Amatex, has become a major public policy concern. In response to the problem several bills have been introduced in the Congress to provide compensation for asbestos (and other occupational disease) victims. This paper estimates the cost of compensating asbestos victims under the provisions of the "Occupational Disease Compensation Act of 1983," introduced by Congressman George Miller. Utilizing fatality projections from studies by Enterline, Selikoff, and Walker, and assumptions regarding likely claims filing and success rates, duration and degree of disability, and medical expenses, first year costs for this legislation are estimated to range from a low of $131 million to a high of $ billion. Present value cost estimates at a 2% real discount rate range from $3 billion to $56 billion. The paper also estimates the impact of possible modifications to the compensation provisions of the legislation. Reducing medical payments by the amount received from medicare would lower costs by 3-4%. Providing survivors with a 3-year lump sum benefit rather than a 5-year lump sum payment would save 20-25% as would offsetting the 5-year lump sum by expected social security old age and disability benefits. Combining all of these changes would reduce costs by almost 50%.

• Asbestos lung cancer risks: comparison of animal and human extrapolations. J.N. Rowe, J.A. Springer. 1986;6(2):171-80. PubMed · Publisher

  Abstract

  Using the most comprehensive inhalation study available, (Wagner, et al., 1974), the dose-response effects of the four major types of asbestos fibers (amosite, anthophyllite, crocidolite, and chrysotile: Canadian, Rhodesian) for lung cancer have been determined. From linear regression analysis of the animal data and five human epidemiology studies giving a wide range of risk estimates, slopes of the curves have been determined and lifetime risk estimates made. Projected risks for rats are presented with and without surface area (s.a.) conversion factors. On the basis of cumulative exposure, the geometric mean of the point estimates for the human studies (0.0146) is quite close to the geometric mean of the animal data (0.0179 without s.a.; 0.0122 with s.a. calculations). These values also match quite well if one of the studies (McDonald, et al.) is eliminated (geometric mean = 0.031) due to qualitatively different exposure considerations (mining and milling vs. industrial environments). Animal risks based on a concentration per day basis (assuming an average 70-year lifespan for humans) are below the lowest human estimate but within 5-6 fold (less) of the projected risk from nonsmoking asbestos workers (2.2 X 10(-3) using the Hammond et al. study.

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